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Duchene, S. et al. We compare both MERS-CoV- and HCoV-OC43-centred prior distributions (Extended Data Fig. Identifying the origins of an emerging pathogen can be critical during the early stages of an outbreak, because it may allow for containment measures to be precisely targeted at a stage when the number of daily new infections is still low. We thank T. Bedford for providing M.F.B. Divergence time estimates based on the HCoV-OC43-centred rate prior for the separate BFRs (Supplementary Table 3) show consistency in TMRCA estimates across the genome. This boundary appears to be rarely crossed. Its origin and direct ancestral viruses have not been . Biazzo et al. Five example sequences with incongruent phylogenetic positions in the two trees are indicated by dashed lines. 6, 8391 (2015). Individual sequences such as RpShaanxi2011, Guangxi GX2013 and two sequences from Zhejiang Province (CoVZXC21/CoVZC45), as previously shown22,25, have strong phylogenetic recombination signals because they fall on different evolutionary lineages (with bootstrap support >80%) depending on what region of the genome is being examined. Unlike other viruses that have emerged in the past two decades, coronaviruses are highly recombinogenic14,15,16. In outbreaks of zoonotic pathogens, identification of the infection source is crucial because this may allow health authorities to separate human populations from the wildlife or domestic animal reservoirs posing the zoonotic risk9,10. Grey tips correspond to bat viruses, green to pangolin, blue to SARS-CoV and red to SARS-CoV-2. Publishers note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. is funded by the MRC (no. acknowledges support by the Research FoundationFlanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk OnderzoekVlaanderen (nos. BEAST inferences made use of the BEAGLE v.3 library68 for efficient likelihood computations. The pangolin coronaviruses show lower similarity to SARS-CoV-2 than bat coronavirus RaTG13 across the whole genome, but higher similarity in the spike receptor binding domain, although the similarity at either scale remains too low to implicate . Overview of the SARS-CoV-2 genotypes circulating in Latin America Genetic lineages of SARS-CoV-2 have been emerging and circulating around the world since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Boxes show 95% HPD credible intervals. We thank all authors who have kindly deposited and shared genome data on GISAID. Biol. These means are based on the mean rates estimated for MERS-CoV and HCoV-OC43, respectively, while the standard deviations are set ten times higher than empirical values to allow greater prior uncertainty and avoid strong bias (Extended Data Fig. (Yes, Pango is a tongue-in-cheek reference to pangolins, which were briefly suspected to have had a role in the coronavirus's originseveral of the team's computational tools are named after. [12] MC_UU_1201412). COVID-19: A Catastrophe or Opportunity for Pangolin Conservation? - Nature These datasets were subjected to the same recombination masking approach as NRA3 and were characterized by a strong temporal signal (Fig. The sizes of the black internal node circles are proportional to the posterior node support. Hon, C. et al. Cell 181, 223227 (2020). The red and blue boxplots represent the divergence time estimates for SARS-CoV-2 (red) and the 2002-2003 SARS-CoV (blue) from their most closely related bat virus, with the light- and dark-colored versions based on the HCoV-OC43 and MERS-CoV centered priors, respectively. We thank originating laboratories at South China Agricultural University (Y. Shen, L. Xiao and W. Chen; no. The estimated divergence times for the pangolin virus most closely related to the SARS-CoV-2/RaTG13 lineage range from 1851 (17301958) to 1877 (17461986), indicating that these pangolin lineages were acquired from bat viruses divergent to those that gave rise to SARS-CoV-2. Humans' selfish, speciesist treatment of these animals could be the very reason why the novel coronavirus exists. PLoS ONE 5, e10434 (2010). SARS-CoV-2 is an appropriate name for the new coronavirus. Aiewsakun, P. & Katzourakis, A. Time-dependent rate phenomenon in viruses. When the genomic data included both coding and non-coding regions we used a single GTR+ substitution model; for concatenated coding genes we partitioned the alignment by codon position and specified an independent GTR+ model for each partition with a separate gamma model to accommodate inter-site rate variation. We compiled a set of 69SARS-CoV genomes including 58 sampled from humans and 11 sampled from civets and raccoon dogs. Annu Rev. Adv. Viruses 11, 979 (2019). B 281, 20140732 (2014). Pangolin-CoV is 91.02% and 90.55% identical to SARS-CoV-2 and BatCoV RaTG13, respectively, at the whole-genome level. In light of these time-dependent evolutionary rate dynamics, a slower rate is appropriate for calibration of the sarbecovirus evolutionary history. These authors contributed equally: Maciej F. Boni, Philippe Lemey. Prolonged SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Intra-Patient Viral Evolu : The Google Scholar. The latter was reconstructed using IQTREE66 v.2.0 under a general time-reversible (GTR) model with a discrete gamma distribution to model inter-site rate variation. obtained the genome sequences of 10 SARS-CoV-2 virus strains through nanopore sequencing of nasopharyngeal swabs in Malta and analyzed the assembled genome with pangolin software, and the results showed that these virus strains were assigned to B.1 lineage, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 was widely spread in Europe (Biazzo et al., 2021). Alternatively, combining 3SEQ-inferred breakpoints, GARD-inferred breakpoints and the necessity of PI signals for inferring recombination, we can use the 9.9-kb region spanning nucleotides 11,88521,753 (NRR2) as a putative non-recombining region; this approach is breakpoint-conservative because it is conservative in identifying breakpoints but not conservative in identifying non-recombining regions. Scientists defined the pangolin lineage of this variant to be B.1.1.523 and it was originally recognized as a variant under monitoring on July 14, 2021. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report 51 (World Health Organization, 2020). 2). Bryant, D. & Moulton, V. Neighbor-Net: an agglomerative method for the construction of phylogenetic networks. Eden, J.-S., Tanaka, M. M., Boni, M. F., Rawlinson, W. D. & White, P. A. Recombination within the pandemic norovirus GII.4 lineage. Nature 583, 286289 (2020). And this genotype pattern led to creating a new Pangolin lineage named B.1.640.2, a phylogenetic sister group to the old B.1.640 lineage renamed B.1.640.1. The virus then. PI signals were identified (with bootstrap support >80%) for seven of these eight breakpoints: positions 1,684, 3,046, 9,237, 11,885, 21,753, 22,773 and 24,628. Virus Evol. In this approach, we considered a breakpoint as supported only if it had three types of statistical support: from (1) mosaic signals identified by 3SEQ, (2) PI signals identified by building trees around 3SEQs breakpoints and (3) the GARD algorithm35, which identifies breakpoints by identifying PI signals across proposed breakpoints. By 2009, however, rapid genomic analysis had become a routine component of outbreak response. Wu, F. et al. J. Infect. From this perspective, it may be useful to perform surveillance for more closely related viruses to SARS-CoV-2 along the gradient from Yunnan to Hubei. The histogram allows for the identification of non-recombining regions (NRRs) by revealing regions with no breakpoints. 1 Phylogenetic relationships in the C-terminal domain (CTD). Nat. To employ phylogenetic dating methods, recombinant regions of a 68-genome sarbecovirus alignment were removed with three independent methods. Coronavirus Software Tools - Illumina, Inc. 88, 70707082 (2014). A dynamic nomenclature proposal for SARS-CoV-2 lineages to - PubMed Eight other BFRs <500nt were identified, and the regions were named BFRAJ in order of length. Collectively our analyses point to bats being the primary reservoir for the SARS-CoV-2 lineage. eLife 7, e31257 (2018). Unfortunately, a response that would achieve containment was not possible. For weather, science, and COVID-19 . This leaves the insertion of polybasic. Given that these pangolin viruses are ancestral to the progenitor of the RaTG13/SARS-CoV-2 lineage, it is more likely that they are also acquiring viruses from bats. Because coronaviruses are known to be highly recombinant, we used three different approaches to identify non-recombinant regions for use in our Bayesian time-calibrated phylogenetic inference. from the European Research Council under the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. Posterior means (horizontal bars) of patristic distances between SARS-CoV-2 and its closest bat and pangolin sequences, for the spike proteins variable loop region and CTD region excluding the variable loop. Despite the high frequency of recombination among bat viruses, the block-like nature of the recombination patterns across the genome permits retrieval of a clean subalignment for phylogenetic analysis. Root-to-tip divergence as a function of sampling time for non-recombinant regions NRR1 and NRR2 and recombination-masked alignment set NRA3. Coronavirus origins: genome analysis suggests two viruses may have combined The SARS-CoV divergence times are somewhat earlier than dates previously estimated15 because previous estimates were obtained using a collection of SARS-CoV genomes from human and civet hosts (as well as a few closely related bat genomes), which implies that evolutionary rates were predominantly informed by the short-term SARS outbreak scale and probably biased upwards. Holmes, E. C., Rambaut, A. In regionA, we removed subregion A1 (ntpositions 3,8724,716 within regionA) and subregion A4 (nt1,6422,113) because both showed PI signals with other subregions of regionA. Effect of closure of live poultry markets on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an ecological study. Anderson, K. G. nCoV-2019 codon usage and reservoir (not snakes v2). Based on the identified breakpoints in each genome, only the major non-recombinant region is kept in each genome while other regions are masked. Rev. When the first genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2, Wuhan-Hu-1, was released on 10January 2020 (GMT) on Virological.org by a consortium led by Zhang6, it enabled immediate analyses of its ancestry. Due to the absence of temporal signal in the sarbecovirus datasets, we used informative prior distributions on the evolutionary rate to estimate divergence dates. Evol. Two exceptions can be seen in the relatively close relationship of Hong Kong viruses to those from Zhejiang Province (with two of the latter, CoVZC45 and CoVZXC21, identified as recombinants) and a recombinant virus from Sichuan for which part of the genome (regionB of SC2018 in Fig. PubMed T.T.-Y.L. Nature 583, 282285 (2020). Probable Pangolin Origin of SARS-CoV-2 Associated with the COVID-19 Li, X. et al. Evidence of the recombinant origin of a bat severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronavirus and its implications on the direct ancestor of SARS coronavirus. RegionC showed no PI signals within it. In the absence of a strong temporal signal, we sought to identify a suitable prior rate distribution to calibrate the time-measured trees by examining several coronaviruses sampled over time, including HCoV-OC43, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV virus genomes. =0.00075 and one with a mean of 0.00024 and s.d. Med. Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma lineage introduction and COVID-19 - Nature Conservatively, we combined the three BFRs >2kb identified above into non-recombining region1 (NRR1). Extended Data Fig. J. Virol. Lam, T. T. et al. 110. RegionsB and C span nt3,6259,150 and 9,26111,795, respectively. Martin, D. P., Murrell, B., Golden, M., Khoosal, A. You signed in with another tab or window. However, on closer inspection, the relative divergences in the phylogenetic tree (Fig. J. Virol. Sliding window analysis of changes in the patterns of sequence similarity between human SARS-CoV-2, and pangolin and bat coronaviruses as described further in Fig. 23, 18911901 (2006). Divergence dates between SARS-CoV-2 and the bat sarbecovirus reservoir were estimated as 1948 (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 18791999), 1969 (95% HPD: 19302000) and 1982 (95% HPD: 19482009), indicating that the lineage giving rise to SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating unnoticed in bats for decades. Posterior distributions were approximated through Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, which were run sufficiently long to ensure effective sampling sizes >100. The authors declare no competing interests. Bioinformatics 30, 13121313 (2014). 5. Evol. Since the release of Version 2.0 in July 2020, however, it has used the 'pangoLEARN' machine-learning-based assignment algorithm to assign lineages to new SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Smuggled pangolins were carrying viruses closely related to the one sweeping the world, say scientists. We demonstrate that the sarbecoviruses circulating in horseshoe bats have complex recombination histories as reported by others15,20,21,22,23,24,25,26. PubMed Central Pango lineage designation and assignment using SARS-CoV-2 - PubMed Subsequently a bat sarbecovirusRaTG13, sampled from a Rhinolophus affinis horseshoe bat in 2013 in Yunnan Provincewas reported that clusters with SARS-CoV-2 in almost all genomic regions with approximately 96% genome sequence identity2. In the absence of any reasonable prior knowledge on the TMRCA of the sarbecovirus datasets (which is required for grid specification in a skygrid model), we specified a simpler constant size population prior. collected SARS-CoV data and assisted in analyses of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 data. Visual exploration using TempEst39 indicates that there is no evidence for temporal signal in these datasets (Extended Data Fig. These rate priors are subsequently used in the Bayesian inference of posterior rates for NRR1, NRR2, and NRA3 as indicated by the solid arrows. The new paper finds that the genetic sequences of several strains of coronavirus found in pangolins were between 88.5 percent and 92.4 percent similar to those of the novel coronavirus. & Minh, B. Q. IQ-TREE: a fast and effective stochastic algorithm for estimating maximum-likelihood phylogenies. EPI_ISL_410538, EPI_ISL_410539, EPI_ISL_410540, EPI_ISL_410541 and EPI_ISL_410542) for the use of sequence data via the GISAID platform. If the latter still identified non-negligible recombination signal, we removed additional genomes that were identified as major contributors to the remaining signal. Use of Genomics to Track Coronavirus Disease Outbreaks, New Zealand 3). Bioinformatics 28, 32483256 (2012). Region A has been shortened to A (5,017nt) based on potential recombination signals within the region. GitHub - cov-lineages/pangolin: Software package for assigning SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences to global lineages. 1, vev003 (2015). Current Overview on Disease and Health Research Vol. 6 The origins we present in Fig. Virological.org http://virological.org/t/ncov-2019-codon-usage-and-reservoir-not-snakes-v2/339 (2020). A counting renaissance: combining stochastic mapping and empirical Bayes to quickly detect amino acid sites under positive selection. J. Virol. & Andersen, K. G. Pandemics: spend on surveillance, not prediction. Nature 579, 270273 (2020). This statement informs us of the possibility that a virus has spilled over from a very rare and shy reptile-looking mammal . Green boxplots show the TMRCA estimate for the RaTG13/SARS-CoV-2 lineage and its most closely related pangolin lineage (Guangdong 2019), with the light and dark coloured version based on the HCoV-OC43 and MERS-CoV centred priors, respectively. These are in general agreement with estimates using NRR2 and NRA3, which result in divergence times of 1982 (19482009) and 1948 (18791999), respectively, for SARS-CoV-2, and estimates of 1952 (19061989) and 1970 (19321996), respectively, for the divergence time of SARS-CoV from its closest known bat relative. Boni, M. F., Zhou, Y., Taubenberger, J. K. & Holmes, E. C. Homologous recombination is very rare or absent in human influenza A virus. Holmes, E. C. The Evolution and Emergence of RNA Viruses (Oxford Univ. Over relatively shallow timescales, such differences can primarily be explained by varying selective pressure, with mildly deleterious variants being eliminated more strongly by purifying selection over longer timescales44,45,46. wrote the first draft of the manuscript, and all authors contributed to manuscript editing. Katoh, K., Asimenos, G. & Toh, H. in Bioinformatics for DNA Sequence Analysis (ed. 5 (NRR1) are conservative in the sense that NRR1 is more likely to be non-recombinant than NRR2 or NRA3. Discovery of a rich gene pool of bat SARS-related coronaviruses provides new insights into the origin of SARS coronavirus. Lancet 395, 949950 (2020). Bayesian phylogenetic and phylodynamic data integration using BEAST 1.10. Nature 503, 535538 (2013). Kosakovsky Pond, S. L., Posada, D., Gravenor, M. B., Woelk, C. H. & Frost, S. D. W. Automated phylogenetic detection of recombination using a genetic algorithm. Of importance for future spillover events is the appreciation that SARS-CoV-2 has emerged from the same horseshoe bat subgenus that harbours SARS-like coronaviruses. Posterior rate distributions for MERS-CoV (far left) and HCoV-OC43 (far right) using BEAST on n=27 sequences spread over 4 years (MERS-CoV) and n=27 sequences spread over 49 years (HCoV-OC43). Sorting these breakpoint-free regions (BFRs) by length results in two segments >5kb: an ORF1a subregion spanning nucleotides (nt) 3,6259,150 and the first half of ORF1b spanning nt13,29119,628 (sequence numbering given in Source Data, https://github.com/plemey/SARSCoV2origins). Next, we (1) collected all breakpoints into a single set, (2) complemented this set to generate a set of non-breakpoints, (3) grouped non-breakpoints into contiguous BFRs and (4) sorted these regions by length. Concatenated region ABC is NRR1. Stamatakis, A. RAxML-VI-HPC: maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic analyses with thousands of taxa and mixed models. A single 3SEQ run on the genome alignment resulted in 67 out of 68sequences supporting some recombination in the past, with multiple candidate breakpoint ranges listed for each putative recombinant. Biol. This is evidence for numerous recombination events occurring in the evolutionary history of the sarbecoviruses22,33; specifying all past events in their correct temporal order34 is challenging and not shown here. Are you sure you want to create this branch? One study suggests that over a century ago, one lineage of coronavirus circulating in bats gave rise to SARS-CoV-2, RaTG13 and a Pangolin coronavirus known as Pangolin-2019, Live Science . performed codon usage analysis. Virology 507, 110 (2017). More evidence Pangolin not intermediary in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 The 2009 influenza pandemic and subsequent outbreaks of MERS-CoV (2012), H7N9 avian influenza (2013), Ebola virus (2014) and Zika virus (2015) were met with rapid sequencing and genomic characterization. Lancet 383, 541548 (2013). Lancet 395, 565574 (2020). Menachery, V. D. et al. 95% credible interval bars are shown for all internal node ages. Correspondence to Dudas, G., Carvalho, L. M., Rambaut, A. We focused on these three non-recombining regions/alignments for divergence time estimation; this avoids inappropriate modelling of evolutionary processes with recombination on strictly bifurcating trees, which can result in different artefacts such as homoplasies that inflate branch lengths and lead to apparently longer evolutionary divergence times. A distinct name is needed for the new coronavirus. 26, 450452 (2020). There are outstanding evolutionary questions on the recent emergence of human coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 including the role of reservoir species, the role of recombination and its time of divergence from animal viruses. Split diversity in constrained conservation prioritization using integer linear programming. 36, 7597 (2002). S. China corresponds to Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangdong provinces. PubMed Central The variable-loop region in SARS-CoV-2 shows closer identity to the 2019 pangolin coronavirus sequence than to the RaTG13 bat virus, supported by phylogenetic inference (Fig. When viewing the last 7kb of the genome, a clade of viruses from northern China appears to cluster with sequences from southern Chinese provinces but, when inspecting trees from different parts of ORF1ab, the N. China clade is phylogenetically separated from the S. China clade. Mol. 26 March 2020. 3 Priors and posteriors for evolutionary rate of SARS-CoV-2. Extensive diversity of coronaviruses in bats from China. Why Can't We Just Call BA.2 Omicron? - The Atlantic The rate of genome generation is unprecedented, yet there is currently no coherent nor accepted scheme for naming the expanding . D.L.R. Press, 2009). 4. Yu, H. et al. Several of the recombinant sequences in these trees show that recombination events do occur across geographically divergent clades. These differences reflect the fact that rate estimates can vary considerably with the timescale of measurement, a frequently observed phenomenon in viruses known as time-dependent evolutionary rates41,43,44. We use three bioinformatic approaches to remove the effects of recombination, and we combine these approaches to identify putative non-recombinant regions that can be used for reliable phylogenetic reconstruction and dating. Extended Data Fig. CoV-lineages GitHub 4 TMRCAs for SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. For the HCoV-OC43, MERS-CoV and SARS datasets we specified flexible skygrid coalescent tree priors. Published. Evol. Early detection via genomics was not possible during Southeast Asias initial outbreaks of avian influenza H5N1 (1997 and 20032004) or the first SARS outbreak (20022003). Su, S. et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. The lineage B.1 has been the major basal and widespread lineage from the initial SARS-CoV-2 spread and it became the more prevalent lineage in Colombia ( 13 ), while the B.1.111 lineage, first detected in the USA from a sample collected on March 7, 2020 and subsequently in Colombia on March 13, 2020 is currently circulating and mainly represented The plots are based on maximum likelihood tree reconstructions with a root position that maximises the residual mean squared for the regression of root-to-tip divergence and sampling time. 382, 11991207 (2020). Sequencing from Malayan pangolins collected during anti-smuggling operations in southern China detected coronavirus lineages related to SARS-CoV-2. Biol. M.F.B., P.L. 190, 20882095 (2004). Microbes Infect. In the variable-loop region, RaTG13 diverges considerably with the TMRCA, now outside that of SARS-CoV-2 and the Pangolin Guangdong 2019 ancestor, suggesting that RaTG13 has acquired this region from a more divergent and undetected bat lineage. Current sampling of pangolins does not implicate them as an intermediate host. (2020) with additional (and higher quality) snake coding sequence data and several miscellaneous eukaryotes with low genomic GC content failed to find any meaningful clustering of the SARS-CoV-2 with snake genomes (a). J. Virol. Lu, R. et al. Preprint at https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.20.052019 (2020). Aside from RaTG13, Pangolin-CoV is the most closely related CoV to SARS-CoV-2. We say that this approach is conservative because sequences and subregions generating recombination signals have been removed, and BFRs were concatenated only when no PI signals could be detected between them. Here, we analyse the evolutionary history of SARS-CoV-2 using available genomic data on sarbecoviruses. This is notable because the variable-loop region contains the six key contact residues in the RBD that give SARS-CoV-2 its ACE2-binding specificity27,37. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. Proc. As a proxy, it would be possible to model the long-term purifying selection dynamics as a major source of time-dependent rates43,44,52, but this is beyond the scope of the current study. On first examination this would suggest that that SARS-CoV-2 is a recombinant of an ancestor of Pangolin-2019 and RaTG13, as proposed by others11,22. 1. Patino-Galindo, J. Ji, W., Wang, W., Zhao, X., Zai, J. 36) (RDP, GENECONV, MaxChi, Bootscan, SisScan and 3SEQ) and considered recombination signals detected by more than two methods for breakpoint identification. The research leading to these results received funding (to A.R. Nature 538, 193200 (2016). Time-measured phylogenetic reconstruction was performed using a Bayesian approach implemented in BEAST42 v.1.10.4. and T.A.C. Emerg. Virological.org http://virological.org/t/ncovs-relationship-to-bat-coronaviruses-recombination-signals-no-snakes-no-evidence-the-2019-ncov-lineage-is-recombinant/331 (2020). Cov-Lineages Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Open reading frames are shown above the breakpoint plot, with the variable-loop region indicated in the Sprotein. and P.L.) Decimal years are shown on the x axis for the 1.2 years of SARS sampling in c. d, Mean evolutionary rate estimates plotted against sampling time range for the same three datasets (represented by the same colour as the data points in their respective RtT divergence plots), as well as for the comparable NRA3 using the two different priors for the rate in the Bayesian inference (red points). Pangolins: What are they and why are they linked to Covid-19? - Inverse the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in In the presence of time-dependent rate variation, a widely observed phenomenon for viruses43,44,52, slower prior rates appear more appropriate for sarbecoviruses that currently encompass a sampling time range of about 18years. Evol. PLoS Pathog. N. China corresponds to Jilin, Shanxi, Hebei and Henan provinces, and the N. China clade also includes one sequence sampled in Hubei Province in 2004. Internet Explorer). The canine viral genome was excluded from the Bayesian phylogenetic analyses because temporal signal analyses (see below) indicated that it was an outlier. Results and discussion Genomic surveillance has been a hallmark of the COVID-19 pandemic that, in contrast to other pandemics, achieves tracking of the virus evolution and spread worldwide almost in real-time ( 4 ). Proc. Lin, X. et al. Suchard, M. A. et al. PDF How COVID-19 Variants Get Their Name - doh.wa.gov New COVID-19 Variant Alert: Everything We Know About the IHU Variant 6, eabb9153 (2020). In case of DRAGEN COVID Lineage tool, the minimum accepted alignment score was set to 22 and results with scores <22 were discarded. performed recombination analysis for non-recombining alignment3, calibration of rate of evolution and phylogenetic reconstruction and dating. Phylogenetic trees and exact breakpoints for all ten BFRs are shown in Supplementary Figs. Boni, M. F., Posada, D. & Feldman, M. W. An exact nonparametric method for inferring mosaic structure in sequence triplets. July 26, 2021. Preprint at https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.28.122366 (2020). These residues are also in the Pangolin Guangdong 2019 sequence. We compiled a dataset including 27human coronavirus OC43 virus genomes and ten related animal virus genomes (six bovine, three white-tailed deer and one canine virus). Our approach resulted in similar posterior rates using two different prior means, implying that the sarbecovirus data do inform the rate estimate even though a root-to-tip temporal signal was not apparent. Lam, H. M., Ratmann, O. volume5,pages 14081417 (2020)Cite this article. Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-020-0771-4. Genetics 172, 26652681 (2006). This long divergence period suggests there are unsampled virus lineages circulating in horseshoe bats that have zoonotic potential due to the ancestral position of the human-adapted contact residues in the SARS-CoV-2 RBD. 13, e1006698 (2017). Given what was known about the origins of SARS, as well as identification of SARS-like viruses circulating in bats that had binding sites adapted to human receptors29,30,31, appropriate measures should have been in place for immediate control of outbreaks of novel coronaviruses.